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Gina Castignani

HIV/AIDS has become increasingly prevalent in African countries and a concern to the respective African governments. It has been identified that preventative/proactive measures to prevent this increase, as opposed to reactive ones, are more effective. HIV/AIDS is concentrated within poorer communities due to a variety of factors, one of which is the lack of good quality education, if any, in these communites or areas. This analysis aims to determine whether expenditure on education as a % of GDP as well as literacy rates have any correlation with the prevalence of HIV/AIDS (displayed as the % of the total population). The existence of a correlation between literacy rates and expenditure on education is also examined.

Hypothesis 0: There has been an increase in the prevalence of HIV/AIDS in the period 2000 - 2006.
Hypothesis 1: Higher literacy rates result in a relatively lower prevalence of HIV/AIDS.
Hypothesis 2: Greater expenditure on education will result in lower prevalence of HIV/AIDS.
Hypothesis 3:  Higher literacy rates and expenditure on education are rather strongly positively correlated.


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0: The first visualization clearly indicates an increasing prevalence in the indicated period. Hypothesis confirmed.
1: Higher literacy rates appeared to show correlation, a moderate POSITIVE correlation may be observed indicating that higher literacy levels should imply a higher prevalence of  HIV/AIDS.
2: There proved to be little correlation. However a slight POSITIVE correlation may be observed indicating that greater expenditure on education is related to greater HIV/AIDS prevalence.
Hypothesis one and two may not indicate true relationships as several factors should be taken into account. Expenditure on education does not necessarily translate into         higher education levels nor does it indicate the quality of education. Literacy levels are also not a good indicator for education quality but do suggest some basic form of education has been attained. 
3. A moderate positive correlation between these two indicators does exist, as was expected. It is interesting to observe, however, that in some cases (Sudan, Nigeria and Zambia) the two indicators are poorly correlated. Due to the lacking sample size I feel these results demonstrates an undermined positive correlation.